The rise of aluminium in the new vehicle manufacturing context

This report reflects some of the conclusions of recent studies analysing the projection of aluminium in the current context of vehicle manufacturing. Sources:  

https://european-aluminium.eu/. 

www.ducker.com

https://international-aluminium.org/

https://www.cmgroup.net/

https://www.imarcgroup.com/

In a study published in April 2023 for European Aluminium, an organisation that represents the world of this material for its numerous applications in different sectors in Europe, Ducker Research and Consulting highlights the developments linked to the electrification of the automotive market. The consultancy firm has been conducting analyses for the EA since 2012.

In order to reflect the strong trend towards electrification, the 2022 European assessment of aluminium content in cars includes all powertrains. in cars it includes all powertrain variants and all electric vehicle models. The aluminium content is distributed among 12 component families, each of which encompasses a different number of components, up to a total of 96.

To analyse and forecast aluminium content in passenger vehicles, Ducker combines primary research (expert interviews with vehicle manufacturers and suppliers, including input from EA members), secondary research, LMC production data and internal Ducker proprietary data. 

A European team from our Automotive and Materials department was in charge of the project and worked closely with the US team in charge of the North American aluminium content study for the North American Aluminium Association.

According to the analysis, the largest increases in aluminium will come from the ‘EV Specific’ family: almost 54 kg more aluminium will be needed per vehicle in 2030 compared to 2022. The need for additional aluminium content in BIW (body-in-white) will also be significant: more than 15 additional kg per vehicle in 2030 compared to 2022 for EV-specific components.

All forms of aluminium products will see their CPV (content per vehicle) increase in 2030. Castings will have the largest increases in aluminium: 22 kg between 2022 and 2030. Extrusions and sheets are also expected to see significant content increases (14-15 kg each). Forgings will have a limited increase of 0.5 kg by 2030.

Castings are by far the largest aluminium product at 123 kg per vehicle and are expected to reach 145 kg per vehicle by 2030. The strongest growth is expected from extrusions due to increasing penetration in electric vehicles.

According to Ducker, aluminium will continue its uninterrupted growth trajectory in automotive. Regulatory requirements for the reduction of CO2 emissions pave the way for electrification, which contributes to a higher intensity of aluminium use.

Premium brands will continue to increase their share of aluminium. C and D segments will gain share over A and B segments. SUVs - which already account for more than 50% of current EU production - will continue to grow. Overall, developments will encourage greater use of aluminium.

Driven by electrification and lightweighting requirements, the average aluminium content per vehicle (APC) will continue to increase. The period 2022-2026 will show strong growth in both CPV and gross demand. Growth is expected to decelerate after 2026. 

While the average aluminium CPV will remain more or less stable for PHEVs until 2030, it will increase for BEVs until 2026 before declining due to the evolution of the BEV mix towards smaller, non-premium models.

Huge potential in China

A study for International Aluminium by CM Group shows that by 2030, the Chinese automotive sector is likely to undergo a substantial transformation from internal combustion engines (ICE) to new energy vehicles (NEV). As the material of choice for Chinese automakers to reduce kerb weight, aluminium is well positioned to take advantage of this transformation. The study looks at aluminium in passenger cars, commercial vehicles (buses and trucks), special vehicles and 2- and 3-wheeled bicycles.

Although the number of internal combustion engine vehicles remains stable, weight savings are likely to increase the intensity of use and drive higher volumes. CM Group forecasts China's automotive aluminium use to increase from 3.8 Mt in 2018 to 9.1 Mt in 2030, representing a CAGR of 8.9%. As the Chinese automotive industry is gradually focusing on lightweighting in its effort to comply with increasingly stringent legislation, demand for aluminium is increasing. The consultancy's forecast is bullish and estimates total aluminium consumption in the automotive industry to reach 10.7Mt by 2030, representing a CAGR of 8.9%.

According to the consultancy, with the support of government energy saving policies and emission reduction targets, the development of China's new energy vehicle (NEV) industry is expected to increase from the current 3.8% of total aluminium consumption to 29.4% in 2030. 

In addition to its light weight, according to CM Group, aluminium is cheap and easy to recycle, as evidenced by the increasing use of secondary aluminium in the Chinese automotive industry. Secondary aluminium is mostly used in casting applications, such as the manufacture of engine casings and wheels. 

As Chinese automakers become more sophisticated and focused on the cost and acceptance of recycled metal, CM expects the total consumption of secondary aluminium to increase significantly. However, the share of aluminium in China's total consumption is expected to decline, due to further growth in the vehicle sector, which does not need engines with the kind of components that combustion engines have.

Upward trajectory

As imarc reflects on its website, in addition to the increasing volume of lightweight luxury vehicles, growing awareness of climate change is driving manufacturers to opt for sustainable materials such as aluminium for vehicles. In addition, the growing number of partnerships between manufacturers and aluminium suppliers is positively influencing the market. Apart from this, measures taken by government authorities in numerous countries to promote the production of vehicles that minimise greenhouse gas emissions are also favouring the growth of the market. In addition, increasing adoption of secondary or recycled aluminium in vehicle manufacturing to improve safety and reduce carbon emissions is driving the market growth.

Imarc also states on its website that stringent fuel efficiency and emissions standards around the world are a major driver of the growing demand for automotive aluminium. Governments are setting ambitious targets to reduce carbon footprints, forcing automakers to look for lightweight materials that can improve fuel economy. Aluminium is substantially lighter than traditional steel, allowing for weight savings in vehicle design. Lighter vehicles consume less fuel and produce fewer emissions, which helps manufacturers meet regulatory standards. This environmentally sustainable solution is becoming a popular choice for modern car components, from chassis to propulsion systems.

As people increasingly prioritise safety, aluminium's unique combination of strength and lightness is gaining prominence. Aluminium allows for improved structural rigidity without adding excessive weight, resulting in better handling and improved crash safety. Car manufacturers are taking advantage of this by using aluminium in critical areas such as the car frame, roll cages and crumple zones. It meets consumer demand for safer vehicles and complies with stringent safety standards, further boosting demand for aluminium in the automotive industry.

Increasing sales of electric vehicles (EVs) is another key factor driving demand for automotive aluminium. EVs require lightweight materials to maximise range on a single charge. Traditional metals, such as steel, add considerable weight, which limits vehicle range. The use of aluminium instead of steel in EVs helps extend range, making it the preferred material for battery casings, body structures and other key components. As governments and consumers increasingly move towards sustainable transport, the use of aluminium in electric vehicles is expected to continue its upward trajectory.

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Report published in AutoRevista 2.395